the AI bubble talk has been building for a while but it feels like it hit a different gear recently especially after the OpenAI revenue numbers came out looking significantly lower than what was being projected
and the comparison to the dot-com bubble keeps coming up which is understandable but i am not sure it is the right one
in 2000 most of the companies that collapsed were built on vibes and user growth with no real revenue model underneath. the difference now is that the infrastructure spend is real, the compute is real, and some of the enterprise contracts are real. the question is whether the scale of investment is proportionate to the actual demand that exists right now versus the demand people are projecting will exist in five years
that gap between current demand and projected demand is where the bubble risk actually lives
what i keep wondering is whether this plays out as a full correction like 2000 or more like a consolidation where a few players survive and build genuine long term businesses while the rest quietly disappear
genuinely curious what people here think, are we in bubble territory or is the underlying value real enough that this is just a painful recalibration
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